Lisbon Treaty; will it need re-ratification?

My thanks to Fausty’s Libertarian Blog for reminding me of this issue, and providing a link to this youtube video:

Almost a month ago I wrote this sceptical article based on one of Daniel Hannan’s blogs. Two things have changed since then. Firstly, we have the crisis in Greece having reached serious proportions, and secondly this is polling day.

According to Bruno Waterfield’s blog (he’s been Brussels correspondent for The Daily Telegraph since December 2006) this problem with the permitted number of MEPs (as explained in my blog post I linked to above) presents a dilemma for David Cameron, a point on which we are agreed.

Bruno’s blog outlines the problems for DC in stark detail. We can expect this particular portion of merde to hit the ventilation system in June this year, mere weeks away, and probably coinciding with the new Government’s first official visit to Brussels.

Understandably, from their perspective at least, the Conservatives are as quiet on this issue as the British public is as by-and-large ignorant; not situations I can see continuing.

If Cameron, as I expect, becomes the largest party but with no overall majority in a hung Parliament, he will struggle with this. It will cause utter havoc in the Conservative Party, which will hardly have had time to draw breath after its (likely) election tomorrow, not to mention both getting to grips with and dealing with the utterly dire state of the UK economy.

As Bruno says:

It is not just the Lisbon Treaty, the rest of 2010 offers a host of difficult EU decisions to come:

* Regulation of hedge funds, delayed during the elections but it will be political dynamite this summer for the City – and their natural Tory friends.
* “2020 agenda” economic targets are to be set in Brussels on education and poverty, these are social affairs areas where the Tories have vowed to bring powers back to Britain.
* Herman Van Rompuy’s taskforce on economic governance – more targets, more EU surveillance and a possible new treaty – has its first meeting on May 20.
* A number of justice opt-in/opt-out decisions, which must be debated and agreed by the House of Commons within an eight week period.
* A fiercely contested Brussels budget for 2011 has proposed recession and austerity proof spending increases for the EU at a time when a British government will be cutting back.
* To make it worse, the EU will be kicking off a wider spending debate late this year and the future of that iconic Thatcher rebate will be up for grabs again.

It is not really a question of what impact the Conservatives will have on Europe. It is rather a question of how politically destructive the EU will be to the Tories

As usual, it seems that rather than take to opportunity to reduce the number of fence-related splinters in his arse, Cameron has ducked this issue, that is if this blog on the Conservative Home web site is anything to go by:

“Due to various procedural changes, the Lisbon Treaty is going to have to be ratified by Parliament yet again after the General Election. David Cameron has always been explicit that had he been Prime Minister when the Treaty came forward for ratification, he would have held a referendum. Until now that has simply been a hypothetical situation – but now it is set to become a reality.”

and

“As well as being the right thing to do, a referendum pledge now could be dynamite in the last few days of the election. Clegg and Brown would be put on the spot, challenged to make such a pledge themselves. If they did, then it would be good for Britain, we’d get the Lisbon referendum we were all promised and Cameron would have shown himself to be a leader. If they did not, then Cameron would be able to head into the election as only man willing to trust the people by holding the long-desired referendum.

This is a golden opportunity for the Conservatives to do the right thing by Britain and to do themselves a favour. David Cameron should grab it with both hands.”

The latter points are well-made, and it is disappointing to see that the whole issue has been swept under the carpet. No dynamite, no pledges, no favours to himself; no mention of it at all, in fact. I suspect Mr. Cameron will be reaching for the tweezers any day now. Good luck with those splinters…

So, Daniel, who will be proven correct? Me and my expectation of a fudge, or you with a referendum? If it’s you, then I’ll bet Cameron has to be dragged kicking and screaming to do it.