The Conservatives still don’t get it…

First off, let me repeat: I am by instinct and inclination a Conservative voter. My local Tory PPC is Ben Gummer, a man I’ve met several times, and whom I like. He will be, I believe, a very good MP for Ipswich, and I hope he will be elected. However, it is highly unlikely that I will be voting for him.

The above, tossed into the ring like that with no context, may seem a bit odd, but let me explain:

I picked this comment up in the Telegraph today, which was entitled “William Hague’s clear message: vote Tory, or be ruined [This is no time to indulge in fantasies of a hung Parliament]“, and was posted late in the day on 12 Feb.

Intrigued, I read on:

“William Hague has an apocalyptic message today for our readers, and the whole country. We must choose between “change and ruin”. In an interview with this newspaper he tells us that the forthcoming general election is our chance – our only chance – to get rid of Gordon Brown. This is no time to punish mainstream political parties with votes for fringe groups or to indulge in fantasies of a hung Parliament.”

..and..

“Mr Hague’s interview is calculated, too: every major interview between now and the election will have been at least partly choreographed by strategists. It, too, betrays undercurrents of anxiety: the Tories are understandably rattled to find themselves with only single-figure poll leads in the dying days of one of the most unpopular governments in living memory. But, be that as it may, we suspect Conservative voters will be reassured by what Mr Hague has to say.”

This article has, at the time of writing, 133 comments, which a quick read shows mostly disagree with Mr. Hague’s assertion. The two main themes running through them are a) Mr. Cameron isn’t a “proper” Tory, nor is he a strong and inspiring leader, and b) we need to deal with the EU question firmly and urgently. It’s worth pointing out here that the latter view was by far the more strident, and numerically far superior to the former. There is also a sub-text of “they’re all the same/in it for themselves/crooks/etc., so sod ‘em all”.

All this reflects a tone that’s been apparent for many months, and which, so far, the Conservatives have failed to even acknowledge, let alone address.

Intrigued, I found the Hague interview and read it.

By and large, as ever, Hague makes sense, but the whole thing has a tenor of complacency and yes, of anxiety. There was not a single mention of the EU, or of UKIP, and a total failure to grasp exactly what it is that has created so many disaffected Tories, or how to deal with them. The (at the time of writing) 75 comments are similar in vein to those of the first article, but they focus much more on policy, or rather the lack of it, and the weaknesses in Cameron’s leadership. Hague is accused, with some justification, of parroting a complacent party line.

This whole “we’ll be better, they are all crap”, and “if you don’t vote for us, it’ll get much worse” smacks of desperation. The attack on fringe parties but only naming the BNP, who will only really damage the white working-class Labour vote, smacks of outright panic. There isn’t any sign of clear blue water here, just “vote for us and we’ll make it all better” with little or no evidence to back that up. No, I’ll go further, in spite of the evidence.

Reading Hague’s interview led me to Norman Tebbit’s blog on the matter. His latest entry is entitled; “I’m sorry, William Hague, but your disregard for lost Tory voters could let Brown back in.” Now, say what you like about his Lordship, but he seems to be one of the last “real” politicians in the Benn, Dalziell, Thatcher mould. He has a knack of saying it like it is. For Tories like me, disaffected, pushed out and homeless, Tebbit is beacon calling us home. Here’s some of what he has to say on the matter:

“William Hague’s interview was rather different. He rightly emphasised that the return of the present Government would be a disaster for the country. Unfortunately, he seems to have fallen into the error which is threatening to allow Gordon Brown to get back into No 10 by default.

“We only win a majority if a large number of people vote Conservative who have never voted Conservative. It is not that there is a large lump of Tory voters who are waiting to return.”

I am sorry, William, but you are wrong on both counts. I meet those people every day. They hear what you say about another NuLab disaster, but they are reluctant to vote for the Tory party today. If you doubt my word, look at the figures.

In 1992, 14.2 million people voted Conservative. In 2001, when you were leader, only people 8.4 million voted Conservative. That is 5.8 million Tories had gone missing. They had not all died or emigrated.

In the meantime, NuLab’s 1997 total of 13.5 million voters had diminished to 9.5 million. I doubt if many of those missing 4 million will return this year. They will mostly sit on their hands at home or vote BNP.

William, before it is too late, ask yourself what almost busted Marks and Spencers. It was a failure to ask itself why its traditional customers had gone away, and trying instead to entice new customers who had never liked what M&S had traditionally sold. What has saved the business is getting back its former customers.”

Superb, and how true…

I would add “If you doubt my word, look at the blogosphere and see how traditional Tory voters view the current party”. Ok, so we don’t want mob rule, but we live in a representative democracy, and right now, there isn’t much out there in the Tory Party representing me or millions like me…

As of right now, there are 227 comments to Tebbit’s article. I think you can guess the tone…

Right now, my vote will be going to UKIP, and nearer the election, I’ll explain why, and what scenario I see being played out in the coming months.